Football arrived with a bang on Thursday night as the Broncos got the better of Cam Newton and the Panthers. However, that means we are only days away from Sunday being here, so let’s brush up on some of the recent Week 1 NFL Odds trends to help win our opening week plays.
Underdogs continuing to rule
Thursday night was probably a great day for the sportsbooks. The Panthers were -3 road favorites and the home underdog cashed yet again in Week 1 of the season. We probably should have seen it coming though.
The Broncos are apart of six home underdogs in Week 1 this season and there are five left on the Week 1 slate. Since 2011, home underdogs are now a combined 16-12 ATS in Week 1 of the season.
Last year there were nine home dogs that went 4-5, which seems to be a bit out of the ordinary. If you take away last year and include the Broncos’ recent win with years 2011-2014, home dogs are 12-7 ATS.
Last season seemed to be a bit of a break in the trends in Week 1 of the regular season, because the favorites took care of business and were a 9-6-1 ATS winner during the first 16 games of the season.
However, that seems to be an anomaly if you’re looking at the last five seasons. Since 2011,
underdogs are 43-35-2 ATS in Week 1 of the regular season, which is a cash rate of 55 percent. If you take away last season, underdogs are 37-26-1 from 2011 to 2014, with one more added for the first Week 1 game of 2016.
Week 1 Total Trends
While the Week 1 NFL Odds trends for spreads have favored the underdogs, the totals have been a bit harder to pin down. Since 2011 the over has cashed in Week 1 of the season to the tune of 43-34-2. However, that is a bit misleading. Over the last four years since 2012, totals are pretty much even at 33-31.
2011 was a huge year for the over cashing in Week 1 at 10-3-2, so while it may seem like there are some good Week 1 NFL Odds trends on totals, it might be a symptom of a small sample size combined with one abnormal year in 2011.
One of the Week 1 NFL Odds trends that have been established over the last five years is cashing the over on totals that are below 40 points. Last season there was only one total below 40 points and it easily cashed the over.
This can be for several reasons, but it’s normally that the sportsbooks are overvaluing a certain team’s defense, undervaluing their offense, or a little bit of both. However, over the last five years, the over has cashed at 8-3 in games with totals of 39 ½ or lower, the best year coming in 2011 where those games were 5-1 cashing the over.
This season however, the sportsbooks have taken note of this some. When the NFL Odds opened for Week 1, there were no totals lower than 42 ½ and right now the lowest total of Week 1 is between the Browns and Eagles at 41 points, or the Vikings and Titans, who are at 40 ½ at some sportsbooks.